How will the Covid end?
The latest report says that 57% of people living in the Mumbai slums are affected.More than 50% of people affected are youngsters below the age of 40. There is a spike in the total number of people affected each day. All these trends only goes on to show that Covid is nowhere close to going away. It only shows that it is spreading by the day. In such a scenario, let me give you my perspective about how I think the Covid is going to end.
World over, very few countries have been able to control the virus with lockdown and other measures. Most other countries are only going from bad to worse. The problem is, an economic solution is possible only if there is a total wipe out of the virus from the surface of the earth, otherwise travelling in and out of any country would mean a 2-week quarantine and that is not a practical solution.
Although there are more and more people getting affected, the percentage of people who are dying still remains at 2.5% in India. This, according to me, can be improved by educating the people about not getting themselves admitted in the hospital & flooding the hospitals, which will deprive those who really need hospital care. Once hospital care and proper health workers are available for those in need, our health workers and infrastructure is one of the best in the world which can surely bring down the fatality rate.
By now, there are lakhs of people who have had Covid & recovered and they are all absolutely fine. As more and more people get better, the fear of Covid will come down and the confidence of people will be back. As of now, there is no scientific evidence about a re-infection that is possible. In other words, once affected with Covid, will the infection come back a second or a third time? This is a million dollar question! If there is evidence to suggest that once affected with Covid, natural immunity will build up in most people, then we are all saved. I believe, wish and pray that this will happen.
As of now, people who are tested positive, when they do a second test in about 2 weeks time, they are negative and again in 2 weeks time, they are positive; indicating that there could be a re-infection. I believe that those who are negative after 2 weeks could be false negative (the tests which are available are only 65% accurate. They are showing 35% false negative) and they continue to be positive, hence at the end of 4 weeks they still show positive.
I believe that most people once affected, will not get infected with Covid again. They will build up what is called herd immunity, and we will all be fine.
Let me give you a small example, one person in my family was positive and I was exposed after 4 days. I developed cold, cough and mild fever and then for the first time in my life I developed breathlessness. I had difficulty talking on the phone & I knew as a doctor that my lungs were involved. I did not panic, just continued with the Homeopathic viral drops and in about 3 days time the breathlessness stopped and I am absolutely fine. But what this incident also did to me was, I completely got rid of whatever little fear I had of the Covid and now I am extremely confident of facing people or touching things even without a mask. I have had a similar experience with a number of patients whom I am treating.
There is a possibility that a few percentage of people may get re-infected, but if most of us develop antibodies which will help prevent re-infection, we are safe. For centuries, the human race has existed facing such challenges. We have all survived these challenges and came out successful. Hoping that herd immunity is the final answer to Covid,
-Dr. Manoj Kuriakose